Since the results of the transaction execution, including the generated events, depend on the state of the contract and the account at the time of execution, then, apparently, the shown log corresponds to the state if the transaction were included in block 0xb117d6, but at the time of real execution in the context of block 0xb117d8, the state block / account were already different, which led to a different result.
In addition, the prediction of the execution of pending transactions is based on the data of your specific node, which, in the presence of forks, may differ from the data of the main chain.
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